ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park, Windsor and South Melbourne.
Redistribution
Macnamara lost South Yarra to Melbourne, and gained Windsor from Higgins. This change did not affect the two-party-preferred Labor margin, but it slightly weakened Labor and slightly strengthened the Greens and Liberal on the three-candidate-preferred count.
History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. The seat was renamed “Macnamara” in 2019.
Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.
Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.
Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.
Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.
Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.
Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019, and Burns was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Macnamara was a very close and complex count in 2022, which is not at all reflected in the safe Labor two-party-preferred margin. The more important point in the count was the three-candidate-preferred count, which determined who out of Labor, Liberal or Greens would be excluded from the final count. That count has been included in the below results tables.
If Labor made it into the top two, they were expected to easily win on preferences of whichever candidate came third – Liberal or Greens – but if Labor dropped into third their preferences would elect the Greens.
This likely will still be the case in 2025. The parties were extremely close to a three-way tie in 2022. A swing away from Labor would likely see the Greens win, but it’s entirely possible that the Greens could lose ground and remain in third place.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 29,552 | 31.8 | +0.9 | 31.7 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 27,587 | 29.7 | +5.5 | 29.7 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 26,976 | 29.0 | -9.7 | 29.1 |
| Jane Hickey | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.2 | +1.0 | 2.2 |
| Rob McCathie | Liberal Democrats | 1,946 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| John B Myers | Independent | 1,835 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Ben Schultz | Animal Justice | 1,724 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Debera Anne | One Nation | 1,349 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 3,302 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 31,327 | 33.7 | -5.8 | 33.8 |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 31,149 | 33.5 | +0.3 | 33.4 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 30,555 | 32.8 | +5.5 | 32.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 57,911 | 62.2 | +7.3 | 62.2 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 35,120 | 37.8 | -7.3 | 37.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.
The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with a vote ranging from 29.4% in Caulfield to 40.7% in St Kilda.
Labor’s vote was much more consistent, ranging from 31.6% in Caulfield to 32.5% in St Kilda.
The Liberal vote ranged from 17.4% in St Kilda to 30.8% in Caulfield.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| St Kilda | 40.7 | 32.5 | 17.4 | 15,001 | 16.1 |
| Port Melbourne | 29.8 | 32.4 | 28.7 | 13,913 | 14.9 |
| Caulfield | 29.4 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 6,983 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 29.3 | 31.6 | 29.6 | 32,473 | 34.7 |
| Other votes | 23.6 | 30.8 | 35.2 | 25,091 | 26.8 |
Election results in Macnamara at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
What is not understood is that there. Is a difference between these are who are Jewish for religious or cultural reasons and those who support the actions.of the.Israeli .government.
It appears the vote here is an almost 3 way.split
Whoever polls the highest between Labor and the greens will win this seat.
The liberals cannot win.
Assuming they poll 3rd would they preference the greens.?
@mick the greens will outpoll labor. most of the jewish vote is in caufield and its not that they support the actions of the israeli govt its the current labor govt has shown lack of support for both the israeli govt and israel as a state and have voted against israeli interests in the UN when it was Israel that was the victim of a terrorist attack. that and the lack of support against anti-semitism and attacks against the jewish community that the govt hasnt been seen doing muhc to combat will drive their votes away from labor and to the libs. on the other side of the coin some people also see the govt as weak in not supporting palestine and the palestinian people especially in gaza and for that reason those votes will be driven from labor to the greens. The liberals will likely poll 1st or second. As in Richmond, Brisbane, Ryan, Griffith and the new seat of Bullwinkel in WA the coalition will always make the 2CP due to the fact that the centre right vote is always 33.33% or greater and thereby ensuring they wil make the count. even if they didnt they learned their lesson from helping get Bandt elected in 2010 and they wont be making that mistake again for the forseeable future as given the federal greens radicalism they dont want anymore greens in the parliament. I wouldnt say they couldnt win in a GRN v LIB contest it would depend how that labor vote breaks and how well the libs do. I expect the 2PP LAB v LIB to recover and be around 43%. but im not gonna right them off especially if there is a decentre labor right vote that could break their way.
@Darth Vader, it’s unlikely to break much less than 80-20 to the Greens, which itself would be well below average and factors in Jewish Labor voters putting the Liberals higher. In neighbouring Prahran, the Labor vote broke 83-17 to the Greens in 2022.
Remember that the more of an ALP to LIB swing there is among Jewish Labor voters from 2022 over the Gaza issue, the less of a Labor vote there even is to be distributed. And as it stands there is only a 12% total Jewish population, not all of that is Zionist, and that’s already where much of the Liberal vote is concentrated even before factoring in a swing.
In the remainder of the seat which is far more demographically similar to the state seat of Prahran, there’s no reason Labor preferences would flow any differently to how they do in Prahran. And Labor HQ would never let Burns put the Liberals above the Greens (Danby did it once without permission and was told to stop).
Burns also wouldn’t risk doing that anyway because he knows that over 80% of the Labor vote is outside the Jewish community, and the controversy that would arise from distributing a HTVC that puts the Liberals higher than the Greens would just drive more of his primary vote straight to the Greens.
If the Labor 3CP is 29%, I think a 22-7 split to the Greens would probably be a minimum they would get (that’s under 76% so would be way below average). For the Liberals to be competitive vs the Greens, the Greens’ share of Labor preferences would probably need to fall below 65%.
@ trent i dont imagine all of the jewish voters will abandon labor and coupled with the fact i expect labor to lose some of the left vote to the greens im certain that it may break better then 80-20 also you have to take into account that labor is also unpopular at a state level and that could help the liberals however i dont see the liberals winning this seat barring some fluke of a landslide here
The current govt of Israel is a disaster the current leader needs to ride off into the sunset to give a chance for peace. Ie the 2 state solution.
No one should be be arming anyone in the middle east including the usa.
There have been many votes in the UN calling for Israel to vacate the occupied territories.
@mick hamaas needs to surrender and disband first if you disarm the state of israel they will be slaughtered. israel isnt ocupying anything. the only ones harming the peace process is iran and hamas. israel wants peace but they are dedicated to destruction of israel and the death of all jews. the “ocupied territories” is land land israel took in war when they were attacked its israeli territory thaey can build whatever nd whereever they want.
@john
Hamas = Israel they are both extreme neither should have weapons. I am sure if I lived under the authority of either I would at the least be in prison..or worse
Just disappear.
A precondition for peace is Benny has no power
@john – You hit on an important point there, which is that I think the type of ALP voter who would preference the Liberals above the Greens, is the type of voter most likely to swing from ALP to LIB as the primary vote anyway.
I am predicting probably a +5 LIB swing at the 3CP level anyway, and most of that will come at the expense of Labor, but specifically at the expense of the type of Labor voter more likely to preference the Liberals above the Greens.
So I think any LIB swing we see, will probably (mostly) offset any impact of ALP preferences flowing to the Liberals anyway.
I would expect a solid 80-20 preference flow to the Greens, which is still below average, but if applied to a 29% ALP 3CP would break around 23-6 to the Greens.
@no they arent one is a terrorist organisation whose sole purpose is to destroy the state of israel and cleanse it of all jews i.e genocide. one is a soverign country and a democratically elected governement. if the state of israel had no weapons they would be wiped out. i agree though once his term is up Netenyahu should retire.
Mick a precondition for peace, which strangely the ALP seem to hold as does basically everyone bar Iran and Qatar, is that Hamas is nowhere near power and in reality totally destroyed. Without that, the moment you get a Palestinian State they will essentially declare war on Israel who will simply walk in and take it and there is no Palestinian state anymore.
@Trent, I still think you are pricing in the possibility of the Libs winning this way too low. I don’t think it is above 50%, but as we saw in QLD there is some evidence that Greens voters have moved out of areas such as this, and if there is both ALP-Lib and Green-Lib moves (not as unlikely as you think) then there is an outside chance of the Libs winning.
@mostly exactly but they will not get statehood until Hamas and the radical elements are gone. Israel will simply not allow them to ever be in that sort of power. Any Palestinian state would have to renounce violence and recognise the right of Israel to exist. Short of that you will never see a 2 state solution. Israel is not occupying anything because the West Bank and Gaza are technically parts of Israel and you cannot illegally occupy your own territory. The West bank was territory taken from Jordan and Gaza from Egypt. Palestine is not currently a country.
The Territory of the Gaza and West Bank are not part of Israel they are occupied territories.. un has passed resolutions calling for Israel to withdraw many times
The extension of israelli settlers is also a provocative and a barrier to peace
@mick and to whom do they belong then? Gaza and the west bank were taken in a war from Egypt and Jordan respectively yea well the UN is as useless as tits on a bull. The UN has no legal authority and just because the UN says something doesnt mean they are right. If Gaza and the West Bank are occupied territory then so is places like Tibet, Chechnya and every thing west of the Bosphorus strait
also Gaza is not occupied by Israel. Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2006.
Gaza is controlled by Israel and blocked at the other end by Egypt.
I consider any country occupied by another against their wishes to be an occupied territory and Tibet certainly fits that definition.. those areas “in” Israel will help form a Palestinian state.
@mick gaza is controlled by Hamas. Palestine is not curently a state and therefore has no territory. Palestine has never been a country it has been a region controlled by one country or another since the Roman times. Palestine is the name the Romans gave Israel in order to to deprive teh Jews of their native homeland. The Jewish and Israeli people are the original inhabitants of the area Israel now occupies. The Jews are as native to Israel as the Aboriginals are to Australia or as the indians are to North America. Tibet was invaded by China whereas “Palestine” was apart of Israel going back millenia. its not a country. it never was.